VARIANCE SIMULATOR
Visualize how your results can swing over thousands of hands. Understand downswings, upswings, and why bankroll management matters.
Simulation Parameters
Typical: 2-10 bb/100
Cash: ~70-100, MTT: ~200+
Understanding Poker Variance
Variance is the statistical measure of how much your actual results deviate from your expected results. Even strong winning players can experience brutal downswings of 20, 30, or even 50 buy-ins. This simulator shows you exactly how wild the swings can get.
The standard deviation for cash games is typically 70-100 bb/100 hands. For tournaments, it's much higher at 200+ because of the top-heavy payout structures. This is why tournament players need much larger bankrolls.
Why This Matters for Bankroll Management
Use our Bankroll Calculator to figure out how many buy-ins you need for your game type. The variance simulator shows you why those recommendations exist.
Sample Size Matters
Notice how the lines spread out wildly at 10,000 hands but converge toward the expected value at 100,000+. This is why poker players say "you need at least 100k hands to know your true win rate." Short-term results are dominated by variance, not skill.